As the MLB season reaches its midpoint, outfielder Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees and shortstop Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles are emerging as the front-runners in a compelling American League MVP race.
Per FanDuel, the two are the leaders in the AL race, far ahead of their competition.
This battle pits Judge’s raw power against Henderson’s versatility and experience against youth. The race also highlights the players’ significant impact on their teams.
Power vs. versatility
Judge’s power is undeniable. He ranks in the 98th to 100th percentile in eight advanced statistical categories, including Average Exit Velocity, Barrel Percentage and Hard-Hit Percentage.
Henderson, however, brings versatility.
Throughout his career, Henderson has played multiple infield positions. In 2024, he’s primarily a shortstop with occasional DH appearances. His 2024 Fielding Run Value percentile is 94th, with a 98th percentile Range and 83rd percentile Arm Strength. He has committed only nine errors in 316 chances, boasting a .972 fielding percentage.
As manager Brandon Hyde remarked to MLB.com reporter Joe Trezza, “I’m running out of things to say about him. The power is incredible, and the speed. The first hit of the game, he took a sinker away and lined it over the shortstop’s head. To be able to cover, hit for power and also hit lines drives the other way, take walks — he’s doing everything.”
Experience vs. youth
Judge holds the experience edge.
In parts of nine seasons, he has already won Rookie of the Year, finished in the top four of the MVP race three times and claimed the award in 2022, when he set the American League single-season home run record with 62. Judge’s tenure and accolades make him one of the most respected players in the game.
Henderson is only in the second full season of his career but is already making a significant impact. He followed up his Rookie of the Year season with an even better 2024, leading the deep and talented Orioles squad from one of the most demanding positions on the field. His meteoric rise draws comparison to past greats, including the Orioles’ last MVP, Cal Ripken Jr., in 1991.
Team impact
Judge, the captain of the Yankees, exemplifies leadership. Last week, he was seen talking with pitcher Marcus Stroman after Stroman’s demonstrative antics on the field. Judge’s presence is a stabilizing force for the Yankees and his influence extends beyond his performance.
Henderson’s impact on the Orioles is equally significant. Leading in runs scored with 73 and boasting a slash line of .288/.384/.604 for a .989 OPS, he’s a driving force behind the Orioles’ success. His leadership on a young team, combined with his ability to be so versatile, makes him invaluable.
Statistical comparison
Through Sunday’s games, Henderson leads MLB in bWAR with 6.1, just ahead of Judge at 6.0. Judge tops the majors in homers (31), RBI (82), slugging (.708), OPS (1.144), and OPS+ (217). Henderson leads MLB in runs scored and his overall stats are impressive for such a young player.
Historical context
The last time an Oriole and a Yankee finished first and second in the MVP voting was in 1964 when Baltimore’s Brooks Robinson edged New York’s Mickey Mantle. This season, Judge and Henderson could recreate that history, bringing a thrilling close to the MVP race.
As the season progresses, this battle between Judge and Henderson will continue to captivate fans. Both players have made their mark, and their performances in the second half will determine who ultimately claims the MVP award.
