Are we approaching the end of Paul Skenes’ rookie season?

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been on a downward spiral of late, going from postseason hopefuls to regular season disappointments. It’s hard to imagine the current management structure surviving the offseason, as it’s well past time for the Pirates to start making serious competitive inroads in a winnable division.

There have been bright spots, of course, headlined by rookie ace Paul Skenes. The last few weeks have been a challenge for Skenes as he navigates a rising innings count and more familiar hitters, but the 22-year-old got back in the win column with a strong six-inning effort last Friday. He’s now 7-2 on the season through 16 starts with a 2.30 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Not shabby.

On the surface, there’s no reason for the Pirates to shut Skenes down or even limit his minutes. He’s still young, with a relatively fresh arm and no major injuries on his ledger. From a performance standpoint, he is far and away Pittsburgh’s best arm, and he’s the only reason to believe Pittsburgh might finish the campaign in semi-respectable fashion.

And yet, there is real buzz about a potential shutdown. There are plenty of non-baseball incentives for the Pirates to consider that course of action, starting with preservation. Skenes has seen a dip in velocity lately and his success is highly dependent on raw heat. All pitchers are injury-prone nowadays, but Skenes’ triple-digit fastball makes him especially vulnerable.

Another potential reason, as outlined by Ken Rosenthal, Stephen J. Nesbitt, and Zack Meisel of The Athletic, is service time. The Pirates called up Skenes for his debut on May 11, but if he finishes first or second in NL Rookie of the Year voting, Skenes will automatically earn his first year of MLB service time.

If the Pirates can prevent Skenes from achieving that milestone, it adds a year of guaranteed team control before Skenes gets expensive — perhaps too expensive to keep around Pittsburgh.

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Pirates could shut down Paul Skenes to increase long-term control

That is a huge temptation for the Pirates. There is no guarantee that shutting Skenes down prevents him from winning Rookie of the Year, but he has stiff competition. Shota Imanaga has dealt at a high level for the Chicago Cubs all season, and he has more starts under his belt. San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill is an All-Star in his own right, while San Francisco Giants shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald has been on a historic heater since his call-up.

The fallout from such a decision — and how the awards voting body handles Skenes’ candidacy — could be profoundly impactful for all parties involved. If Skenes wins Rookie of the Year, he becomes eligible for a potentially historic contract at 27 years old. If the Pirates can finesse Skenes out of the awards race, he’s locked into the Pirates rotation for six more years, instead of five. If the Pirates can’t afford to pay him when the time comes, that is not an insignificant difference.

Pirates GM Ben Cherington claims there is no innings limit for Skenes at the moment.

“Trying to nail a specific innings total, I’m certainly not smart enough for that to be anything more than arbitrary,” Cherington told The Athletic. “What’s going to guide us much more is: What’s happening in games? What’s happening between games? When and if we feel — and we may — like there’s a time when this is going to help this pitcher and this team stay stronger for the totality of the next two months — by backing off a pitch count one time or giving him an extra day, whatever combination of levers it is — then we’ll do the best we can to do that.”

According to the report, the Pirates have “no such plans” to shut down Skenes. So, while a hard cap on his innings could come into play over the next several weeks, the Pirates aren’t going to shut their rookie down for the express purpose of service time manipulation. At least, that is the public-facing stance from the front office on Aug. 19.

Skenes probably wouldn’t love having his season cut short just to put off his next payday, so there is an element of appeasement at play here, too. The Pirates don’t want to upset Skenes, especially if there’s any long-term hope of keeping him in Pittsburgh beyond his rookie contract.