Mitch Marner is treading thin ice with the Maple Leafs

Mitch Marner wearing a uniform with a question mark on it. Maple Leafs logo as background.

The Toronto Maple Leafs face a significant decision regarding how to manage the Mitch Marner situation in the coming months.

The speculations surrounding Marner’s future intensified last week when the Maple Leafs’ star forward was spotted in a Toronto coffee shop having a conversation with new coach Craig Berube.

Maple Leafs not wanting to make the same mistake

Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitchell Marner (16) during warm-up of game three of the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Boston Bruins at Scotiabank Arena.John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
The Mitch Marner dilemma in Toronto is unlikely to be resolved swiftly, according to Sportsnet’s Elliot Friedman. There is concern that if Marner begins next season without a contract, it could lead to the fan base turning against either the player or the team.

“Don’t be surprised if Marner’s situation plays out over the next season in Toronto,” Friedman added. “If the contract demands on both sides are crazy, it could lead to a divorce. But on June 2nd, I’m not certain that Marner will be traded.”

Friedman noted that some members of Leafs management may also be worried about a situation similar to what happened with Nazem Kadri in the past.

In 2019, Toronto traded Kadri, who like Marner was a former London Knight, to the Colorado Avalanche following some playoff disappointments and disciplinary issues. Kadri became a pivotal player for a Stanley Cup-winning team in Colorado, while the Leafs continue their quest for their first championship since 1967.

Mitch Marner and the Maple Leafs’ playoff woes

It’s evident that Mitch Marner’s playoff performance since joining the Maple Leafs in 2016 hasn’t matched his regular season numbers. Across 575 regular season games, he has accumulated 194 goals and 445 assists, totaling 639 points.

However, in the postseason, he has recorded 11 goals, 39 assists, and a total of 50 points.

Throughout his eight-year career, Marner has seen a 21% decline in point production during the postseason. While he maintains an average of 1.11 points per game in the regular season, this figure decreases to 0.88 points per game in the playoffs.

All Maple Leafs’ Core Four players experience a decline in their production during the postseason. William Nylander has the smallest drop at 9% and is the only player to witness a slight increase of 3% in his goal production. Marner follows with a 21% drop, while Auston Matthews is next with a 24% decline. John Tavares experiences the most significant drop at 34%.

While it’s true that Marner has faced difficulties in scoring points during the playoffs compared to his regular-season performance, he’s not the only one. Despite these challenges, he ranks fourth all-time in playoff points per game, with Matthews and Nylander right behind him in fifth and sixth place, respectively.

Uncertain future in Toronto

Marner is under contract for one more season in 2024-2025 with a $10.903 million cap hit. Adding to the complexity is his no-movement clause, which means that even if the Maple Leafs consider trading him, he may have the final say on whether or not he leaves.

The Maple Leaf right wing is set to become a free agent next year if he doesn’t sign an extension this offseason, although it’s unclear if Toronto is considering that option. Such a move might be contentious among fans due to criticism over Marner’s playoff performances. For now, it’s too early to predict Marner’s future with the team as the situation evolves over time.