MLB End-of-June Check-in: AL Central

The Guardians maintained a sturdy lead in a surprisingly robust AL Central.

Every day, Pinstripe Alley offers updates on what the Yankees’ top American League opponents are up to through the Rivalry Roundup. The AL East is well-trodden ground there, but with the month of June coming to a close, we’re going to take a peek around MLB as a whole and check in with each of the other five divisions. Who’s surprising? Who’s underwhelming? Who’s simply mediocre at the moment? Read on and find out.

First Place: Cleveland Guardians (52-30)

Top Position Player: Steven Kwan (3.5 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Tanner Bibee (2.0 fWAR)

Without major upgrades to an offense that was fourth-worst in runs last season and after losing ace Shane Bieber to a UCL injury, the Guardians have somehow found their way to the best record in the AL through June (percentage points over Baltimore). Steven Kwan is a big part of the turnaround, hitting .368 and playing Gold Glove-caliber defense in left. David Fry is having a breakout season with the bat as well, and José Ramírez remains José Ramírez. Emmanuel Clase has been the best closer in baseball, and Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith have been lights-out bullpen pieces as well.

Against all expectation, it’s Cleveland’s rotation that’s been their Achilles’ heel. Tanner Bibee and Ben Lively have been solid, but the Guardians’ other starters have struggled mightily. Carlos Carrasco, Logan Allen, and Triston McKenzie all have ERAs over five. Once a 2022 playoff starter, McKenzie was optioned down to Triple-A yesterday and Gavin Williams was reinstated from the IL to take his place, a move that could inject some stability into the rotation.

Second Place: Minnesota Twins (47-37)

Top Position Player: Carlos Correa/Willi Castro (2.9 fWAR)

Top Pitcher: Joe Ryan (2.3 fWAR)

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It’s been a bit of a mixed bag for the Twins. Edouard Julien was unable to replicate the success he found last season and ended up sent down. Burgeoning star Royce Lewis went down with injury yet again. But Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have both stayed mostly healthy and effective, while Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers, and Jose Miranda have taken big steps forward.

Like the division leaders, Minnesota’s biggest questions lie on the pitching front. Joe Ryan has been excellent and Simeon Woods Richardson looks ready to stick at the MLB level. But the rest of the rotation has been a disappointment. Most surprising is the regression of Pablo López, who had a top-10 Cy Young finish last year but has struggled to a 4.88 ERA thus far in 2024. Jhoan Duran has been shaky in the closer role as well, though Jorge Alcala and Griffin Jax have picked up the slack to the extent that they might be in line for expanded roles should the incumbent ninth-inning man continue to open the door.

Third Place: Kansas City Royals (47-39)

Top Position Player: Bobby Witt Jr. (4.8 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Cole Ragans (3.1 fWAR)

The Royals have been one of baseball’s most pleasant surprises so far this year, even though June brought a regression from their hot start with a 12-15 record that saw Cleveland bolster its lead and Minnesota surpass Kansas City.

Nonetheless, Bobby Witt Jr. remains a legitimate MVP candidate, slashing .312/.363/.534 with 22 steals alongside elite shortstop defense. Salvador Perez is still getting it done with the bat, as is newcomer Freddy Fermin as they split time at catcher. And, while some of the Royals’ other young bats (MJ Melendez, Nelson Velázquez) have struggled, their rotation has been among baseball’s best. All five of Kansas City’s starters have performed above league average by ERA+, while Seth Lugo, at 11-2 with a 2.17 ERA and 196 ERA+ has been among the very best pitchers in baseball.

The unit holding the Royals back is their new-look bullpen. Of the six relievers who’ve made at least 30 appearances, each has an ERA above 3.50. Kansas City’s closer, James McArthur, has posted a 4.28 ERA, though he’s been more effective recently, recording a 1.80 in 10 June innings.

Fourth Place: Detroit Tigers (38-46)

Top Position Player: Riley Greene (2.2 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Tarik Skubal (2.8 fWAR)

After several years of rebuilding and disappointment, the Tigers looked to take a step forward this year. Of the position players, Riley Greene got the memo, slashing .253/.350/.480 with 15 homers and playing solid defense at all three outfield positions.

The rest of the offense has been unremarkable. True rookie Colt Keith has not looked ready for prime time and Javier Báez is still about as bad as any hitter in recent memory (his 26 wRC+ makes his dreadful 61 wRC+ from 2023 look like peak Báez). Former top prospect Spencer Torkelson has struggled so mightily he got sent down and, a few weeks from his 25th birthday, has moved from young up-and-comer to potential bust.

Their sluggish lineup has prevented Detroit from capitalizing on what has been an impressive rotation. Tarik Skubal is healthy and a legitimate Cy Young contender, going 9-3 with a 2.32 ERA and 112 strikeouts in 97 innings. Reese Olson and Jack Flaherty haven’t been far behind, both pitching to an ERA in the low threes. Jason Foley has emerged as the Tigers’ closer, fortifying a no-name squad that’s struggled at times this year. Ultimately, though, the Tigers will need a rapid offensive turnaround to get back in the race.

Last Place: Chicago White Sox (24-62)

Top Position Player: Paul DeJong (1.2 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Garrett Crochet (3.7 fWAR)

There are bad teams and there are terrible teams; and then there are the 2024 Chicago White Sox. Their best hitter by OPS+, Luis Robert Jr., is hitting .205 with a .279 OBP. Andrew Benintendi has been almost unbelievably futile at the plate, slashing .196/.246/.300. The White Sox’s top four relievers all have ERAs above four.

Chicago’s sole bright spots have come in their rotation. Erick Fedde has been a new man in his return from the KBO, pitching to a 3.23 ERA and 128 ERA+ in 17 starts. But it’s Garrett Crochet who has been the true revelation. After spending parts of three seasons in the bullpen he was given his first opportunity to start this season and has run with the opportunity, striking out an MLB-leading 141 batters in 101.1 innings alongside a 3.02 ERA and 2.37 FIP, tops in the AL.

Given the state of the franchise, the southpaw is expected to be the prize of this year’s trading deadline, and should be available alongside anything else in Chicago that’s not nailed down. (But, uh, good luck on trying to move Benintendi.)

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