Paul Skenes will start the All-Star Game for the National League. That is peak entertainment — but is it the right call in the history books?
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates / John Fisher/GettyImagesLook, Paul Skenes starting the MLB All-Star Game next week is great for business. He’s the hottest name in baseball and he’s damn effective on the mound, with comically impressive numbers through 11 starts. Skenes’ 1.90 ERA is hard to fathom, and he has 89 strikeouts through 66.1 innings pitched. Pound for pound, there hasn’t been a more prolific starting pitcher in the National League.
Accounting for talent, impact, and entertainment value, Skenes is a great pick. Watching the preternaturally gifted 22-year-old battle Gunnar Henderson, Juan Soto, and Aaron Judge in the first inning will be the sort of thing we talk about 10 or 20 years down the line when reminiscing about Skenes’ meteoric rise.
And yet, there is an element of controversy to Tory Lovullo’s decision to start the rookie. Skenes doesn’t have the resumé — short or long-term — of those he passed over. He is the only NL starter with fewer than 89 innings pitched this season, and Skenes falls well short of that mark. It’s fair to wonder if his historic productivity will hold up over another five or six starts, at which point his volume will begin to match those behind him in the pecking order. Most rookies hit a wall eventually. Skenes is special, duh, but he has also been used in purposefully concentrated doses by a Pittsburgh team eager to manage his pitch count.
Here are a few deserving candidates who probably would start over Skenes if not for the general sensation around the rookie fireballer.
3. Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs
Zack Wheeler is the real answer here, but he’s slated to sit out the All-Star game for rest purposes. As such, it’s worth noting the other National League rookie slated to toss pitches in next week’s main event. Shota Imanaga was a rookie sensation weeks before Pittsburgh called up Skenes. It has been a rough campaign for the Chicago Cubs as a whole, but Imanaga’s immediate impact was profound.
He has the numbers to garner a starting nod — 2.97 ERA and 1.113 WHIP, with a couple of outlier stinkers ballooning what would be an even more impressive ERA. Imanaga has tossed 97 innings to date, virtually 1.5 times as many as Skenes. And he’s still on the low end compared to other All-Star starters.
The MLB would still be able to market the historic nature of a rookie starting in the All-Star game. Imanaga doesn’t overpower hitters in the same way as Skenes, but he’s arguably just as fun to watch as a tactician. The nasty movement and precise location control deployed by Imanaga has left many a hitter swinging at air.
It’s sort of cheating to call Imanaga a rookie — he’s 30 years old with years of professional success under his belt in his native Japan — but he’s still a novelty for U.S. audiences, and he has been nothing short of dominant for the Cubs. It would not be frowned upon to let Skenes come in behind another rookie. How many All-Star teams have pitched two rookies back-to-back out of the gate?
2. Reynaldo Lopez, Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves were struck by catastrophic injury early in the season. Spencer Strider was axed after his second start and slated for Tommy John surgery. All of a sudden, Atlanta’s ongoing fifth starter conundrum reemerged. Still, it would be a heck of a lot worse in the Braves bullpen if not for the heroics of Reynaldo Lopez, an under-the-radar offseason addition who has proven essential to Atlanta’s Wild Card pursuit.
Lopez led the MLB in earned runs allowed as a starter for the Chicago White Sox in 2019. In the years since, he has bounced between teams and roles, splitting time as a starter and a long reliever. Lopez was supposed to be a journeyman stopgap at the end of Atlanta’s rotation. Instead, the 30-year-old has developed into the Braves’ best arm this season.
The numbers back up his candidacy quite well. Lopez has a better ERA than Skenes (1.71) across five more starts and 23.1 more innings. He has a 7-2 record for the fourth-best team in the NL, filling a glaring hole in place of the injured Strider. He is, to a certain extent, buoying the Braves’ World Series hopes right now. It’s a collective effort, but the conversation around Atlanta as a contender would be vastly different if Lopez wasn’t eviscerating offenses every fifth game.
He certainly does not offer the same entertainment value as watching Skenes top 100 MPH or even watching Imanaga pull the chair out with that nasty 12-6 curve. That said, in terms of pure merit, there’s a rock-solid case for putting Lopez on the mound first for the National League.
1. Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies
Best pitcher on the best team? Oftentimes, that is enough to start the All-Star game. Ranger Suarez has stiff in-house competition from Zack Wheeler, who again, would be my personal pick if healthy. Cristopher Sanchez should’ve been an All-Star as well, but it’s difficult to find room for three starters from the same rotation. The Philadelphia Phillies will have to settle for a couple starters and a couple relievers.
Suarez has been absolute gold for Philadelphia all season. He is the definition of ‘stone-cold assassin,’ operating with a level of composure and self-assurance that few can muster. Suarez is never rattled by the situation. When he pitches himself into jams, Suarez typically pitches himself out. He doesn’t crumble in high-stakes moments, and he never looks afraid of the league’s elite hitters.
In terms of front-to-back consistency and volume of workload, Suarez has the best case. The numbers are flatly dominant — 2.58 ERA and 1.019 WHIP — and he has 108 innings under his belt through 18 starts, with a comical 10-3 record. Suarez began the season 9-0. He didn’t lose a game until the back end of May. He has a complete game shutout on his resumé, and again, the Phillies are the best team (and the best pitching staff) in the MLB.
Suarez ultimately doesn’t get the same style points at Skenes, but in a true meritocracy, he probably gets the nod among those available to start. It’s not like Suarez isn’t a gem to watch, either. Not many pitchers can transform the ability to field groundballs into a spectacle.
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