China’s Military Aspirations vs. Its Hidden Weaknesses

China’s ambition to become the world’s leading economic and military power by 2049, the centennial of the People’s Republic, is often dubbed the “China Dream” by President Xi Jinping. On the surface, China’s substantial investments in its military—ranging from modernized Air Force units and a growing arsenal of missiles to a formidable navy—seem to pave the way for this grand vision. However, beneath this polished exterior lies a host of significant issues that reveal China’s military may not be as formidable as it appears. Here’s a detailed look at ten hidden weaknesses that could undermine China’s military might.

1. Soldier Safety and Equipment Reliability

One crucial aspect of any military is keeping its soldiers alive, which directly impacts morale and operational effectiveness. Despite China’s advanced weaponry, it faces challenges with its soldiers’ safety. Recent issues have emerged with Chinese body armor provided to Russia. Tests on Chinese-made armor revealed that while it effectively stops small arms fire, it inadequately disperses impact energy, which can lead to significant blunt force trauma. This could be detrimental in a real conflict scenario where soldiers need reliable protection.

2. Retention and Recruitment Challenges

China mandates military service, but retaining skilled personnel remains a challenge. Despite efforts to boost pay by 40% and offer preferential treatment for veterans, only 35% of service members choose to reenlist. This contrasts with the U.S. military, where about 55% of troops re-enlist. Low salaries for senior officers and a lack of robust veteran care compared to Western standards contribute to the problem, creating a gap in experienced military personnel.

3. Naval Aviation Deficiencies

China’s Navy, despite its size, suffers from significant limitations in aerial capabilities. The U.S. Navy boasts substantial air power with numerous aircraft, providing it with a significant edge in intelligence and combat readiness. China’s naval aviation is still developing, with training and equipment lagging behind U.S. standards. The JL-9G training aircraft is deemed insufficient for carrier-based operations, and with only about 60 Shenyang J-15 Flying Sharks in service, China struggles to fully staff its aircraft carriers.

4. Quantity vs. Quality in Naval Assets

Although China has a large number of naval vessels, the majority are smaller and less combat-ready compared to the U.S. Navy’s assets. China lacks cruisers and has fewer destroyers, resulting in a significant gap in ship tonnage compared to the United States. This disparity means that while China can concentrate its forces in a specific area, it falls short in a direct confrontation with the U.S. Navy.

5. Submarine Warfare Limitations

China’s submarine fleet is primarily composed of diesel-electric submarines and a small number of noisy nuclear-powered submarines. The newer Type 95 and Type 96 submarines are still years away from deployment, and the current fleet lacks the stealth and operational endurance of America’s nuclear submarines. This deficiency impacts China’s ability to challenge U.S. submarine dominance effectively.

6. Ineffective Anti-Access/Area Denial Strategy

China’s strategy to mitigate its disadvantages in a direct confrontation with the U.S. relies on an anti-access/area denial (A2AD) approach. While this involves electronic warfare and missile arsenals, the U.S. has developed methods to counteract these strategies. American stealth aircraft and long-range missiles, for instance, can strike critical Chinese infrastructure without entering the A2AD zone, neutralizing some of China’s strategic advantages.

7. Unfinished Military Reforms

China’s military reforms, initiated in 2015, aimed to streamline command structures and create new services. However, these new entities often suffer from inefficiencies due to their recent formation and the merging of old units. For instance, the Joint Logistic Support Force (JLSF), responsible for logistical support, is still figuring out effective methods for operations like airlifts and airdrops.

8. Logistical Limitations

China’s logistical capabilities are hindered by its reliance on civilian ports and transport for overseas operations. Although China is expanding its military transport fleet, it still falls short compared to the U.S. This reliance limits China’s ability to project power effectively over long distances, which is crucial for maintaining a significant military presence abroad.

9. Lack of Combat Experience

China’s military has not engaged in significant combat since the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War. While it has conducted drills and demonstrations, real combat experience is lacking. The PLA’s performance in past conflicts, such as the border skirmishes with Vietnam, indicates potential weaknesses in combat readiness and adaptability, which could impact its effectiveness in future conflicts.

10. Political Control Over the Military

The PLA operates under the Communist Party’s directives rather than as a national military force. Political commissars have significant influence over military operations and promotions, which can undermine the effectiveness of military training and decision-making. This ideological focus can impede operational efficiency and tactical effectiveness in real combat scenarios.

In summary, while China has made impressive strides in modernizing its military, these hidden weaknesses highlight that its armed forces are not as formidable as they might seem. From logistical challenges and recruitment issues to limitations in naval and submarine capabilities, these factors could significantly affect China’s military effectiveness in a conflict. Understanding these hidden vulnerabilities is crucial for assessing China’s true military strength and its potential impact on global security.