The Phillies can feel the heat.

Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Phillies lost their season opener against the Atlanta Braves, 3-1, on Tuesday evening. Zack Wheeler threw six strong innings, but the Braves’ pitchers were even better. Reynaldo Lopez gave up Philadelphia’s only run in five dominant innings on the bump, which featured 10 strikeouts. Grant Holmes, Joe Jimenez, and Raisel Iglesias finished the game out with four innings of combined shutout baseball.

Lopez mowed down Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber three times each. It was arguably his most flat-out dominant performance of the season, which is a major credit when one considers the scope of Lopez’s accomplishments in 2024. Returning from an IL stint brought on by forearm inflammation, Lopez didn’t show any signs of rust. He now has the fifth-best WAR among MLB pitchers and a comically dominant 2.05 ERA through 20 starts.

Philadelphia’s division lead dwindles to six games with the defeat. That is still a nice cushion, but Atlanta has two more games in this series to trim it even further. The Phillies are on the struggle bus, and have been ever since the All-Star break. Maybe it’s just a momentary lull, but it’s coming at the most inopportune time. We are used to the Phillies starting the season slow and entering the playoffs on a heater. Right now, Rob Thomson’s squad is on the opposite trajectory.

Bryce Harper bemoans Phillies recent struggles and fires warning shot

Nobody is more acutely aware of Philadelphia’s present shortcomings than Bryce Harper, who is also very much aware of what’s at risk.

“It should be a big series for us, too,” Harper told reporters (h/t MLB.com). “Obviously, we’ve got a long way to go. We’ve got a month of baseball left. Just come in here and win games. It doesn’t matter how far [ahead] you are or anything like that. Obviously, you guys know what happened [late] in 2007. We’ve just got to keep going and keep doing our thing.”

What happened in late 2007? The Mets blew a seven-game division lead to the Phillies in 17 games. The Phillies currently have 37 games to blow a six-game lead. It is officially time to panic a bit in the City of Brotherly Love. Let’s see how the team responds moving forward.

Harper has been especially bad since the All-Star break. He’s batting .216 with a .674 OPS over that period. He has 28 strikeouts compared to 24 hits. That won’t cut it, especially with Trea Turner on a similar downturn. It’s only a matter of time until Harper relocates his swing, but the question is, will he do it in time for the postseason? The Phils can’t afford to wait until 2025 for Harper’s resurgence.

Even if the Phillies win the division, just dropping to the No. 3 seed leaves them in peril. That would probably set up a three-game Wild Card series against Atlanta, with Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, and Max Fried on the docket. Sale and Fried are fireballing lefties, the exact sort of ace that can give Philadelphia loads of trouble. As for Lopez, we just witnessed first hand what he can accomplish against this lineup in a high-stakes game.

The Phillies have owned Atlanta in recent postseason matchups, but this is a different Braves squad, and the vibes aren’t quite as strong around Philadelphia right now. There’s still a month of baseball left, so vibes will shift and narratives will evolve, but Harper is right to put the Phillies on high alert. It’s time to lock in.