The Olympics kick off in 80 days, and Team USA’s women’s basketball roster is still TBD. The final pre-roster-announcement training camp was held in Cleveland during the Final Four in April, and whispers are that the final roster could hit by early June.
With the depth of talent in the U.S., the selection committee has the challenging job of putting together the best 12-person team — not just the 12 best players — because this is about Team USA winning its eighth consecutive gold medal and 10th overall. Chemistry and filling specific needs are key.
The committee tends to bookend the rosters with veterans, who might not play as much as they did a cycle or two before, and one or two young players, who also aren’t likely to be high-usage contributors but are seen as the future of the program.
In between, there are “locks,” the players who are the best in the world. Then, there is the pool of players who fill a need on the roster and have also been consistent performers at the training camps Team USA hosts throughout the year.
Despite how straightforward that might seem, there’s no exact science for the committee. One of Team USA’s biggest challenges is that their depth changes the training camp roster from camp to camp. Elsewhere, countries have more of the same personnel year over year, meaning some nations coming into the Paris Games have had the same core — growing up together, playing together — for years. For Team USA, finding a proper personnel grouping is particularly important because there won’t be a long runway for the final 12 to jell and deliver on expectations.
When I began making my projection, I looked at previous rosters, and my eyes were particularly drawn to the 2016 Olympic team. At that time, the Minnesota Lynx were dominant, in the middle of their run of four titles in seven seasons. The 2016 Olympic roster was one-third Lynx members: Maya Moore, Seimone Augustus, Lindsay Whalen and Sylvia Fowles. Those were certainly four of the best players in the country, but that group specifically had chemistry that brought players together on and off the floor. Considering the player pool and the current state of the WNBA, I think the 2024 roster will have flavors of 2016, just substituting the Las Vegas Aces for the Lynx.
Eleven weeks out from the 2024 Olympic Games, this is my prediction for the roster.
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