“Here for a good time, not a long time” — Juan Soto on his Yankees tenure, probably

The New York Yankees made the biggest trade splash of the offseason, acquiring Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres in exchange for several high-value prospects. The move has paid dividends, with Soto on an MVP trajectory as the Yankees patrol the top of the American League standings.

At 47-21, the Yankees officially have the most wins in baseball and are tied with the Philadelphia Phillies for the best overall record. That title could soon belong to New York outright as the Phils deal with a crippling injury to All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto.

Soto has been every bit as dominant as advertised, slashing .318/.425/.599 with 17 home runs and 53 RBI across 242 at-bats. He has 47 walks compared to 48 strikeouts, the sort of healthy ratio only the best hitters in baseball can sustain. Pitchers tend to dance around Soto, as every mistake is punished.

With the Yankees riding high and Soto looking comfortable in his new threads, one would imagine it’s a no-brainer for the most prestigious franchise in baseball to pay Soto his worth this offseason. Sure, he’s a free agent, but we’re talking about the Yankees. Surely the New York frickin’ Yankees won’t let a generational talent walk over money quibbles.

Well, think again. Hal Steinbrenner set the tone for New York’s upcoming free agency period by dubbing the Yanks’ current payroll “unsustainable.” Not great, Bob. Soto is going to demand a major pay raise. If the price balloons too high, well, expect the Yankees to respectfully bow out.

ESPN recently polled 28 MLB executives, agents, and insiders to gauge Soto’s potential open-market value. Some of these numbers ought to send the Yankees fandom into a spiral.

MLB insiders peg Juan Soto’s next contract value well north of $400 million

The average of all 28 projections from ESPN is 11.6 years and $482.5 million, which sits well north of the nine-year, $360 million deal Aaron Judge signed a couple years back. It does not, however, surpass Shohei Ohtani’s historic 10-year, $700 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers from this past winter.

That said, the high end of the ESPN projections is… well, a lot. To be specific, one insider pinpoints Soto’s value at 10 years, $655 million. That is far and away the second-most lucrative contract in league history, trailing only the Ohtani deal. Notably, the Ohtani deal is almost all deferred, which decreases the actual value over time. Odds are Soto’s next deal won’t come with such a team-friendly structure.

If Soto can actually command upward of $600 million, it’s probably not coming out of the Yankees’ pockets. The obvious alternate landing spot would be the New York Mets, who are equipped with baseball’s richest owner in Steve Cohen and a deep-rooted desire to upstage the Yankees. With Pete Alonso primed to leave for greener pastures, the stars have aligned for New York’s other franchise to land Soto with an aggressive offer.

With how the Ohtani sweepstakes played out, we should probably expect Soto’s next contract to land near the top end of his projected value range. Teams are going to bid up the price for a 26-year-old with Soto’s combination of contact, power, and discipline at the plate. He is one of the greatest offensive weapons of a generation, and he’s hitting the market far earlier than usual. Soto is about to get a bag.

Let’s see if the Yankees pony up and pay it, or if this Soto sojourn ends after one explosive season.