Jake Paul vs. Mike Perry predictions, odd, best bets: Paul prop, Uriah Hall among top picks to consider

This weekend offers a few different choices for bettors to get in on the action

Vutuan

Vutuan

When Jake Paul steps into the boxing ring, it demands a unique sort of attention. That demand isn’t the same as it was with a boxing megastar like Floyd Mayweather, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, or even 58-year-old Mike Tyson — who Paul plans on fighting in September, but rather a sense of “What in the world is going to happen this time?”

When Paul’s fight with Tyson was postponed from its original July 20 date as a result of Tyson having an ulcer flare-up, the social media influencer-turned-boxer went searching for an opponent to keep the date. That search led Paul to Mike Perry, the UFC washout who has become something of a sensation in Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship, and the pair now meet on Saturday at Amalie Arena in Tampa.

Perry is, in theory, one of the most dangerous men Paul has stepped in the ring with. Given his reputation for aggression and powerful punching, a reputation that has only grown under the BKFC umbrella, many expect Perry to give Paul all he can handle and more.

Given the excitement and curiosity factor of a Jake Paul event, let’s take a look at the card and identify our choices for some of the best bets to make at the sportsbook window.

Jake Paul via TKO/KO/DQ (-125) vs. Mike Perry

Yes, Perry is an aggressive fighter who could put some uncomfortable pressure on Paul. He’s also going to be the much smaller man in weight, height and reach. Perry is a fairly average sized fighter at 170 pounds where he campaigned in the UFC and a bit undersized at 185, where he most recently fought at BKFC. In addition to being three inches taller and with a five-inch reach advantage, Paul had bulked up to over 200 pounds in preparation for his fight with Tyson. This fight is set to take place at the 200-pound cruiserweight limit.

Perry also has thrived in BKFC because it suits his skills well. He hits hard enough but his punches without gloves have allowed him to cut, swell and knock the teeth out of opponents. But boxing is a different game, one where the gloves provided added defense and take away that kind of physically damaging shot that has allowed Perry to rebound from a 3-7 end to his UFC career. In addition, Perry’s power is often overstated. Two of his three BKFC finishes were stoppages due to damage and he went the final 10 fights of his UFC career without a knockout. In fact, his final three finishes in the UFC were set up by knees and elbows, not punches. Given all this, Paul will likely be able to wear on Perry a bit with his size and use his superior boxing technique to land shots until he gets the stoppage before the conclusion of 10 rounds. That 10-round distance is also somewhat foreboding for someone who has never fought more than 15 minutes as a professional, exactly half the time scheduled for Paul vs. Perry.

Uriah Hall (+215) vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.

We’re taking a bit of a chance here with Hall, a former UFC fighter who turns 40 later this month and who holds a 1-0 record as a professional boxer after decisioning former NFL running back Le’Veon Bell in 2022. Hall is facing a former boxing world champion in Chavez. But Chavez is also one of the great wastes of talent in the modern boxing history. From drug test failures to weight misses to listless performances, Chavez disappointed boxing fans at seemingly every opportunity.

Chavez has come up short against a former MMA fighter before, losing to Anderson Silva in 2021 in lopsided fashion (ignore the one judge who senselessly scored the bout for Chavez). Chavez even managed to pull off that loss in his home country of Mexico, where his father is a boxing god. Chavez fought once more in 2021 and has not had a professional bout since. Now, he returns to fight at cruiserweight, a higher weight division than he’s ever fought at before. Given Chavez’s history of discipline problems and disappointing performances, why not take a shot on Hall as an underdog? If anything, it says a lot about Chavez that given the two fighters’ respective resumes and skill levels that Chavez is a relatively small -280 favorite.

Ashton Sylve (-360) vs. Lucas Bahdi

Sylve is taking a nice step up as a 20-year-old prospect who is one of the centerpieces of Paul’s MVP Promotions. Sylve seems to have the goods, with a good mix of power and technique that has let him dominate his 11 pro fights to date. Bahdi is a bit more experienced and also undefeated at 16-0. Despite that, we like Sylve to continue his impressive lightweight run and think the line is a bit closer than it should be.

Sylve likey works as a nice parlay booster. For example, pairing the Paul and Sylve moneylines is a solid play that comes in at -175. The Paul by stoppage line parlayed with Sylve is +130.

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